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Supportive emergency decision-making model towards sustainable development with fuzzy expert system
Neural Computing and Applications ( IF 4.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s00521-021-06183-4
He Li , Jun-Yu Guo , Mohammad Yazdi , Arman Nedjati , Kehinde Adewale Adesina

The major key attributes of decision-making during emergency to de-escalate disaster, reduce fatality and prevent asset loss are time and the efficiency of the process. Decision-makers faced the challenge of accessing adequate and precise information during emergency cases due to the time limitation, inadequate data on and about the disasters and thus decision-making process becomes complex and complicated. A well-advanced and developed mathematical tool is required to respond adequately in the presence of these challenges. The current study investigates the effects of post-flood management plans in Iran through sustainable development features in the possible early time. A new hybrid emergency decision-making approach integrating the best–worst method (BWM), Z numbers and zero‐sum game is proposed to ensure much more effective responses in realistic cases. The importance weights of criteria are computed using the BWM, the payoff assessments of decision-makers are collected employing the Z numbers, and finally, the zero‐sum game method is utilized to rank the alternative of emergency solutions. The proposed hybrid approach assists the decision-makers to deal decisively with the ambiguity associated with the data for assessing and evaluating the emergency circumstances. To show the efficiency of the proposed approach, a real-life example of the Golestan flood of 2019 is presented. More so, a comparison analysis is performed to assess the practicability and feasibility of the proposed hybrid approach. The result indicates that the proposed methodology has considerable merits compared with the existing tools and can adequately deal with these shortages. In this case, the aircraft emergency delivery system of the relief supplies is obtained as the best solution to the problem.



中文翻译:

基于模糊专家系统的可持续发展支持性应急决策模型

在紧急情况下为降级灾害、减少死亡和防止资产损失做出决策的主要关键属性是时间和过程的效率。由于时间限制、灾害相关数据不足,决策者面临在紧急情况下获取充分和准确信息的挑战,因此决策过程变得复杂和复杂。需要一种先进和发达的数学工具来应对这些挑战。目前的研究通过在可能的早期通过可持续发展特征调查了伊朗洪水后管理计划的影响。一种新的混合应急决策方法,结合了最佳-最差方法(BWM),提出了 Z 数和零和游戏以确保在现实情况下更有效的响应。利用 BWM 计算准则的重要性权重,利用 Z 数收集决策者的收益评估,最后利用零和博弈方法对应急方案的备选方案进行排序。提议的混合方法有助于决策者果断地处理与评估和评估紧急情况的数据相关的模糊性。为了展示所提出方法的效率,我们展示了 2019 年 Golestan 洪水的真实例子。更重要的是,进行了比较分析以评估所提出的混合方法的实用性和可行性。结果表明,与现有工具相比,所提出的方法具有相当大的优点,并且可以充分解决这些不足。在这种情况下,救灾物资的飞机应急运送系统作为解决问题的最佳方案。

更新日期:2021-06-22
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