The security hypothesis posits that the international crime drop can be attributed to, in large part, improvements in security technology. However, in recent years, certain types of property crime are increasing. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that offenders are adapting to increased security in vehicles through burglarizing residences to steal keys. We analyze residential burglaries, thefts of vehicles, and their co-occurrences in Brisbane Australia (2009–2018) to identify changes in their temporal patterns. Residential burglaries declined while thefts of vehicle remained relatively constant. Co-occurrences of residential burglaries and thefts of vehicle doubled while the rate almost tripled. Data signatures indicate a shift in modus operandi showing significant increases in the use of residential burglaries to facilitate thefts of vehicle.

安全假说认为，国际犯罪率的下降在很大程度上可以归因于安全技术的改进。然而，近年来，某些类型的财产犯罪正在增加。在本文中，我们检验了犯罪者通过盗窃住宅盗窃钥匙来适应车辆安全性增加的假设。我们分析了澳大利亚布里斯班（2009-2018 年）的住宅盗窃、车辆盗窃及其同时发生，以确定其时间模式的变化。入室盗窃减少，而车辆盗窃保持相对稳定。住宅盗窃和车辆盗窃的同时发生翻了一番，而比率几乎翻了三倍。数据签名表明作案手法发生了变化，表明使用住宅入室盗窃来促进车辆盗窃的情况显着增加。