I study the effects of prison quality on recidivism using individual-level data from Colombia. To estimate causal effects, I leverage the quasi-random assignment of inmates to newer, less crowded, and higher service prisons. For inmates assigned to newer facilities, I find that the probability of returning to prison within one year is 36% lower. Criminal capital, access to rehabilitation programs, and negative prison experiences—which could trigger changes in intrinsic preferences over illegal occupations—seem to be important mechanisms. The program led to substantial welfare gains, even when assuming a low social cost per crime.

中文翻译：

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更好的监狱会减少再犯吗？监狱建设计划的证据

我使用哥伦比亚的个人数据研究监狱质量对累犯的影响。为了估计因果效应，我利用将囚犯准随机分配到更新、不那么拥挤、服务水平更高的监狱。对于分配到较新设施的囚犯，我发现一年内重返监狱的可能性要低 36%。犯罪资本、获得康复计划和消极的监狱经历——这些可能会引发对非法职业的内在偏好的变化——似乎是重要的机制。即使假设每次犯罪的社会成本较低，该计划也带来了可观的福利收益。