With the development of industry transfer, the increasing attention of all government levels has been paid to the sustainable development of ecological environment. To highlight the effect of environmental factors on pollution industry transfer, a triangle model with various combination scenarios of industry, location, and environmental factors is adopted to empirically study the transfer mechanism of China’s pollution industry according to the panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2018. The obtained results indicate that (1) industrial advantage is the primary factor of improving the transfer of pollution industry in China; especially, the significance of location and environmental indicators is significantly lower than that of industrial indicators. (2) With the increasing promotion of regional coordination strategy and ecological civilization construction, the attraction of location factors to industry transfer is decreasing, and the inhibition of environmental factors to pollution industry is increasing. (3) In addition, it is worth noting that China’s pollution industry has not been in “innovation highland” but “environmental depression,” which indicates that the phenomenon of “pollution haven hypothesis” is probable in the industry transfer of China. The paper suggests that reasonable industry transfer should be adopted by all government levels to promote industrial transformation and upgrading with considering the environmental capacity.

随着产业转移的发展，生态环境的可持续发展越来越受到各级政府的重视。为了凸显环境因素对污染产业转移的影响，采用产业、区位、环境因素多种组合情景的三角模型，根据2000年至2017年30个​​省份的面板数据，对我国污染产业转移机制进行实证研究。 2018年，所得结果表明：（1）产业优势是促进我国污染产业转移的首要因素；尤其是区位和环境指标的显着性明显低于工业指标。 （2）随着区域协调战略和生态文明建设的不断推进，区位因素对产业转移的吸引力减弱，环境因素对污染产业的抑制作用增强。 （3）此外，值得注意的是，我国污染产业并未进入“创新高地”，而是处于“环境洼地”，这表明我国产业转移很可能出现“污染避难所假说”现象。建议各级政府在考虑环境容量的情况下，采取合理的产业转移，促进产业转型升级。