This article analyzes the contagion effect on business failure, focusing on the Spanish hotel sector. The sample consists of 3,948 hotel micro-, small, and medium-sized enterprises in the 2012-2015 period and includes variables related to characteristics of the hotel and tourist destination. The results show that the contagion effect is significant, increasing the explanatory capacity of the model. Moreover, the results show that the analysis of the contagion effect should consider not only its simultaneous impact but also that deferred over time on the probability of failure. Thereby, this study found that after the initial shock, the contagion effect decreases and changes its sign from negative to positive in the fourth year.

本文分析了企业倒闭的传染效应，重点关注西班牙酒店业。样本包括 2012-2015 年期间的 3,948 家酒店中小微企业，包括与酒店和旅游目的地特征相关的变量。结果表明，传染效应显着，增加了模型的解释能力。此外，结果表明，对传染效应的分析不仅应考虑其同时影响，还应考虑随时间推移对失败概率的影响。因此，本研究发现，在最初的冲击之后，传染效应在第 4 年减弱，其符号由负转正。