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Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy
European Economic Review ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103810
Alan J Auerbach 1 , Yuriy Gorodnichenko 1 , Daniel Murphy 2
Affiliation  

We evaluate the effects of inequality, fiscal policy, and COVID19 restrictions in a model of economic slack with potentially rigid capital operating costs. Rich households satiate their demand for goods/services (and consume an endowment on the margin), whereas poor households’ spending on goods/services is limited by their income (which in turn depends on spending by the rich and on fiscal transfers). The model implies that inequality has large negative effects on output, while also diminishing the effects of demand-side fiscal stimulus. COVID restrictions can reduce current-period GDP by more than is directly associated with the restrictions themselves when rigid capital costs induce firm exit. Higher inequality is associated with larger restriction multipliers. The effectiveness of fiscal policies depends on inequality and the joint distribution of capital operating costs and firm revenues. Furthermore, COVID19 restrictions can cause future inflation, as households tilt their expenditure toward the future.



中文翻译:

需求决定型经济中的不平等、财政政策和 COVID19 限制

我们在具有潜在刚性资本运营成本的经济松弛模型中评估不平等、财政政策和 COVID19 限制的影响。富裕家庭满足他们对商品/服务的需求(并在边际上消费捐赠),而贫困家庭在商品/服务上的支出受到收入的限制(这反过来又取决于富人的支出和财政转移)。该模型表明,不平等对产出有很大的负面影响,同时也削弱了需求方财政刺激的影响。当刚性资本成本导致企业退出时,COVID 限制措施可以使当期 GDP 减少的幅度超过与限制措施本身直接相关的幅度。更高的不平等与更大的限制乘数相关。财政政策的有效性取决于不平等以及资本运营成本和公司收入的联合分配。此外,COVID19 限制可能会导致未来的通货膨胀,因为家庭将支出倾向于未来。

更新日期:2021-06-28
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