This paper uses the time-varying parameter–stochastic volatility–vector autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to analyze the time-varying impact of housing price fluctuations on banking financial risk under different macrocontrol policy backgrounds. The results indicate that the impact of housing price fluctuations on banking financial risk at different time points has always been positive, showing a “hump-shaped” trend of first rising and then falling. However, the impact of this kind of shock is obviously heterogeneous. With the tightening of external macrocontrol policies, the positive impact has gradually weakened. The tightening macrocontrol policy environment is more conducive to alleviating the impact of housing price fluctuations on banking financial risk.

中文翻译：

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房价波动对银行金融风险的时变影响

本文采用时变参数-随机波动率-向量自回归(TVP-SV-VAR)模型分析不同宏观调控政策背景下房价波动对银行业金融风险的时变影响。结果表明，不同时间点房价波动对银行业金融风险的影响一直是正向的，呈现出先升后降的“驼峰”趋势。但是，这种冲击的影响显然是异类的。随着外部宏观调控政策的收紧，积极影响逐渐减弱。宏观调控政策环境趋紧，更有利于缓解房价波动对银行业金融风险的影响。