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The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 , DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12847
Lutz Kilian 1 , Xiaoqing Zhou
Affiliation  

The response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks provides strong evidence that shocks to the demand for housing that originate in one region also raise house prices in other regions. We develop a theoretical model that helps understand this finding. The model differentiates between oil-producing and nonoil-producing regions and incorporates multiple sectors, trade between provinces, government redistribution, and consumer spending on fuel. We empirically confirm the model prediction that oil price shocks are transmitted to housing markets in nonoil-producing regions by the government redistribution of oil revenue and increased interprovincial trade.

中文翻译:

房地产市场区域冲击的传播:来自加拿大油价冲击的证据

加拿大房地产市场对油价冲击的反应提供了强有力的证据,表明一个地区对住房需求的冲击也会提高其他地区的房价。我们开发了一个有助于理解这一发现的理论模型。该模型区分了产油区和非产油区,并纳入了多个部门、省际贸易、政府再分配和消费者对燃料的支出。我们实证证实了模型预测,即油价冲击通过政府对石油收入的再分配和增加的省际贸易传递到非产油地区的房地产市场。
更新日期:2021-06-21
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