The article deals with risk assessment of mass development of a toxic dinoflagellate species Prorocentrum cordatum (Prorocentrales, Dinophyceae) in various regions of the Black Sea by applying ecological niche modeling. Niche modeling was developed using the MaxEnt algorithm. The MaxEnt model training was based on the data of P. cordatum general distribution according to the GBIF source, along with the data on 8 environmental variables retrieved from the Bio-Oracle database. Quality evaluation of the obtained model was executed with the values of AUC statistics, and relative contribution of selected environmental variables to the model was also estimated. In order to additionally assess the applicability of the model, analyses of literature data (from 1886 through 2020) together with original data on the distribution of P. cordatum in the Black Sea (from 1986 to 2020) were carried out. Response curves of environmental variables with the highest permutation importance are given. Map projections of MaxEnt habitats suitability scores for P. cordatum in the Black Sea area are presented. According to our estimates, about 16 percents of the whole Black Sea area are in the high or very high risk zone of P. cordatum mass outbreaks. Maximum values of predicted suitability were obtained for the northwestern part of the Black Sea, while in other regions of the sea they coincided with location of large sources of anthropogenic eutrophication and further distribution of polluted waters by currents. The proposed mathematical model can be used to predict the appearance and mass development of other toxic species.

本文通过应用生态位模型对黑海不同地区有毒鞭毛藻物种Prorocentrum cordatum（Prorocentrales，Dinophyceae）的大规模发展进行风险评估。利基建模是使用 MaxEnt 算法开发的。该模型最大墒培训的基础上的数据P. cordatum根据 GBIF 来源的一般分布，以及从 Bio-Oracle 数据库检索到的 8 个环境变量的数据。使用 AUC 统计值对获得的模型进行质量评估，并估计所选环境变量对模型的相对贡献。为了进一步评估模型的适用性，对文献数据（1886 年至 2020 年）以及黑海P.cordatum分布（1986 年至 2020 年）的原始数据进行了分析。给出了排列重要性最高的环境变量的响应曲线。P. cordatum MaxEnt 栖息地适宜性评分的地图投影介绍了黑海地区。根据我们的估计，整个黑海地区约有 16% 处于P.cordatum大规模爆发的高风险或极高风险区域。预测适宜性的最大值是针对黑海西北部获得的，而在其他海域，它们与人为富营养化的大型来源和受洋流进一步分布的污染水体的位置相吻合。提出的数学模型可用于预测其他有毒物种的出现和大规模发展。