Abstract

The levelized cost of energy is commonly used in both policymaking and capital investment decisions. It unitizes capital costs by amortizing them over an assumed asset life. The life of the asset is usually assumed to be known with certainty. But in many electric power applications, the life is both uncertain and subject to regulatory shocks. In these cases, the standard levelized cost of energy calculation is incorrect and potentially misleading. We propose a corrected version of this measure using expectation under a probability model for shortened life and show its implications for several investment and policy applications.

中文翻译：

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能源的平准化成本和工厂生命周期中的监管不确定性

摘要

能源的平准化成本通常用于政策制定和资本投资决策。它通过在假定的资产寿命内摊销资本成本来统一资本成本。资产的寿命通常被认为是确定的。但在许多电力应用中，寿命既不确定又受到监管冲击。在这些情况下，能源计算的标准平准化成本是不正确的，并且可能会产生误导。我们在缩短寿命的概率模型下使用预期提出了该度量的修正版本，并展示了其对若干投资和政策应用的影响。