ABSTRACT

Previous studies have investigated the relationship between political instability and economic growth separately from the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth. Besides, they did not cover the period after 2011 (i.e. the Arab Spring and its consequences). Therefore, this paper attempts to empirically analyze the long-run and short-run impacts of both political instability and military expenditure on economic growth in Egypt. We estimate the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using data on the Egyptian economy over the period 1982–2018. For the robustness of our results, we use the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimator. Results of the ARDL approach indicate a significant negative relationship between political instability and economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. Contrarily, military expenditure has an insignificant impact on economic growth, especially in the long-run. These results are confirmed by the FMOLS estimator. Moreover, the estimated coefficient on the one-period lagged error correction term (ECT_t-1) indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship are corrected within a year.

摘要

以前的研究已经将政治不稳定与经济增长之间的关系与军费开支与经济增长之间的关系分开进行了研究。此外，它们没有涵盖 2011 年之后的时期（即阿拉伯之春及其后果）。因此，本文试图实证分析政治不稳定和军费开支对埃及经济增长的长期和短期影响。我们使用 1982-2018 年期间埃及经济的数据估计自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 方法。为了我们的结果的稳健性，我们使用完全修改的普通最小二乘 (FMOLS) 估计器。ARDL 方法的结果表明，长期和短期内政治不稳定与经济增长之间存在显着的负相关关系。相反，军费开支对经济增长的影响微乎其微，特别是从长期来看。FMOLS 估计器证实了这些结果。此外，一期滞后误差校正项的估计系数（ECT_t-1 ) 表示与长期均衡关系的偏差在一年内得到纠正。