Extreme wind storms can strongly influence short-term variation in lake ecosystem functioning. Climate change is affecting storms by altering their frequency, duration, and intensity, which may have consequences for lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. However, catchment and lake processes are simultaneously affecting antecedent lake conditions which may shape the resistance and resilience landscape prior to storm exposure. To determine whether storm characteristics or antecedent lake conditions are more important for explaining variation in lake ecosystem resistance and resilience, we analyzed the effects of 25 extreme wind storms on various biological and physiochemical variables in a shallow lake. Using boosted regression trees to model observed variation in resistance and resilience, we found that antecedent lake conditions were more important (relative importance = 67%) than storm characteristics (relative importance = 33%) in explaining variation in lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. The most important antecedent lake conditions were turbidity, Schmidt stability, %O₂ saturation, light conditions, and soluble reactive silica concentrations. We found that storm characteristics were all similar in their relative importance and results suggest that resistance and resilience decrease with increasing duration, mean precipitation, shear stress intensity, and time between storms. In addition, we found that antagonistic or opposing effects between the biological and physiochemical variables influence the overall resistance and resilience of the lake ecosystem under specific lake and storm conditions. The extent to which these results apply to the resistance and resilience of different lake ecosystems remains an important area for inquiry.

中文翻译：

---

在极端风暴之后，先前的湖泊条件塑造了浅湖生态系统的抵抗力和恢复力

极端风暴会强烈影响湖泊生态系统功能的短期变化。气候变化通过改变风暴的频率、持续时间和强度来影响风暴，这可能会对湖泊生态系统的抵抗力和恢复力产生影响。然而，集水区和湖泊过程同时影响先前的湖泊条件，这可能会在暴风雨暴露之前塑造阻力和恢复力景观。为了确定风暴特征或先前的湖泊条件对于解释湖泊生态系统阻力和恢复力的变化是否更重要，我们分析了 25 次极端风暴对浅湖中各种生物和物理化学变量的影响。使用增强回归树对观察到的阻力和弹性变化进行建模，我们发现，在解释湖泊生态系统阻力和恢复力的变化时，先前的湖泊条件（相对重要性 = 67%）比风暴特征（相对重要性 = 33%）更重要。最重要的前期湖泊条件是浊度、施密特稳定性、%O₂饱和度、光照条件和可溶性活性二氧化硅浓度。我们发现风暴特征的相对重要性都相似，结果表明阻力和弹性随着持续时间、平均降水量、剪切应力强度和风暴间隔时间的增加而降低。此外，我们发现在特定湖泊和风暴条件下，生物和理化变量之间的拮抗或相反作用会影响湖泊生态系统的整体抵抗力和恢复力。这些结果在多大程度上适用于不同湖泊生态系统的抵抗力和恢复力，仍然是一个重要的研究领域。