It is widely recognized that aggregate employment dynamics is characterized by hysteresis. In the presence of hysteresis the long run level of employment instead of being unique, and history-independent depends on the adjustment path that is taken, which includes the monetary and fiscal measures. It is thus important to study the presence of hysteresis in the macrodynamics of employment to understand whether the recession followed 2007’s financial crisis will have permanent effects, and prospectively to conduct fiscal and monetary policies. The main contribution of this paper is to analyse the relative contribution of the main sources hysteresis (non-convex adjustment costs, uncertainty, and the flexibility of working time arrangements) to the width of the employment band of inaction. For that purpose, a switching employment equation was estimated from a computational implementation of the linear play model of hysteresis. From our results we found significant hysteresis effects in the aggregate employment dynamics caused by the presence of non-convex adjustment costs as uncertainty. We also found that the flexibility firms may have to adjust labour input by varying the number of hours of work per employee helps to mitigate the effect of uncertainty upon the band of inaction.

中文翻译：

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滞后和总就业惯性的来源

人们普遍认为，总体就业动态具有滞后性。在存在滞后的情况下，长期就业水平而不是唯一的，与历史无关的，取决于所采取的调整路径，包括货​​币和财政措施。因此，重要的是研究就业宏观动态中滞后现象的存在，以了解 2007 年金融危机之后的衰退是否会产生永久性影响，并前瞻性地实施财政和货币政策。本文的主要贡献是分析了主要来源滞后（非凸调整成本、不确定性和工作时间安排的灵活性）对不作为就业带宽度的相对贡献。为了这个目的，从滞后线性播放模型的计算实现估计转换就业方程。从我们的结果中，我们发现由于非凸调整成本作为不确定性的存在，在总体就业动态中存在显着的滞后效应。我们还发现，灵活性公司可能不得不通过改变每位员工的工作小时数来调整劳动力投入，这有助于减轻不确定性对不作为范围的影响。