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Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics ( IF 0.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-18 , DOI: 10.1515/snde-2019-0117
Keiichi Goshima 1, 2 , Hiroshi Ishijima 3 , Mototsugu Shintani 2, 4 , Hiroki Yamamoto 2, 4
Affiliation  

We construct business cycle indexes based on the daily Japanese newspaper articles and estimate the Phillips curve model to forecast inflation at a daily frequency. We find that the news-based leading indicator, constructed from the topic on future economic conditions, is useful in forecasting the inflation rate in Japan.

中文翻译:

使用基于新闻的经济活动领先指标预测日本通胀

我们根据每日日本报纸文章构建商业周期指数,并估计菲利普斯曲线模型以预测每日频率的通货膨胀。我们发现,基于未来经济状况的主题构建的基于新闻的领先指标可用于预测日本的通胀率。
更新日期:2020-09-18
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