Abstract This paper studies capital mobility in commodity-exporting economies. These countries substantially depend on world commodity prices and have rather high level of savings on average, so it is naturally to assume that they demonstrate special patterns of capital mobility. Our main hypothesis is that constraints on capital mobility in this group of countries depend upon the level of savings compared to the level of investments. In particular, with high savings that follow higher world demand and higher commodity prices, financing country’s desirable level of investment is not a big deal. At the same time, in the case of negative terms of trade shocks these commodity-exporting economies may experience lower savings and higher country risk-premium. This may lead to restrictions on borrowing capital in the global market, resulting in a high correlation between investments and savings. The results of threshold regressions speak in favour of our hypothesis.

中文翻译：

---

商品出口经济体的资本流动

摘要 本文研究商品出口经济体的资本流动。这些国家严重依赖世界大宗商品价格，平均储蓄水平较高，因此自然会假设它们表现出特殊的资本流动模式。我们的主要假设是，这组国家对资本流动的限制取决于与投资水平相比的储蓄水平。特别是，随着世界需求增加和商品价格上涨导致高储蓄，融资国家的理想投资水平并不是什么大问题。与此同时，在贸易条件不利的情况下，这些大宗商品出口经济体可能会经历较低的储蓄和较高的国家风险溢价。这可能会导致在全球市场上借贷资金受到限制，导致投资和储蓄之间存在高度相关性。阈值回归的结果支持我们的假设。