ABSTRACT

This article applies the flexible estimation approach to estimate an augmented gravity trade model to investigate the link between aid for trade (AfT) and export diversification along the intensive and extensive margins in 42 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 1995 to 2019. The findings suggest that total AfT is conducive to export diversification along both margins. When analysed by the AfT category, the results reveal that AfT for trade facilitation is more effective in the short run in boosting exports at the extensive margin while AfT for productive capacity building has a bigger impact along both export margins in the longer term. AfT for economic infrastructure seems to promote exports only at the intensive margin. A key policy implication for the donor community is that providing new and additional resources to trade facilitation in African countries could deliver the highest immediate returns in terms of aid effectiveness.

摘要

本文应用灵活的估计方法来估计增强重力贸易模型，以研究 1995 年至 2019 年期间 42 个撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 国家在集约和粗放边际上的贸易援助 (AfT) 与出口多样化之间的联系. 调查结果表明，总 AfT 有利于沿两个边际的出口多元化。当按 AfT 类别进行分析时，结果表明，贸易便利化 AfT 在短期内在促进广泛边际出口方面更有效，而从长期来看，用于生产能力建设的 AfT 对两个出口边际的影响更大。经济基础设施的 AfT 似乎只在集约边际促进出口。