In this study, we examine whether youth who are exposed to more weapons violence are subsequently more likely to behave violently with weapons. We use data collected with a 3-cohort, 4-wave, 10-year longitudinal study of 426 high-risk youth from Flint, Michigan, who were second, fourth, or ninth-graders in 2006–2007. The data were obtained from individual interviews with the youth, their parents, and their teachers, from archival school and criminal justice records, and from geo-coded criminal offense data. These data show that early exposure to weapons violence significantly correlates at modest levels with weapon carrying, weapon use or threats-to-use, arrests for weapons use, and criminally violent acts 10 years later. Multiple regression analyses, controlling for children's initial aggressiveness, intellectual achievement, and parents' income, education, and aggression, reveal statistically significant independent 10-year effects: (1) more early exposure to weapon use within the family predicts more using or threatening to use a gun; (2) more cumulative early violent video game playing predicts more gun using or threatening to use weapons, and normative beliefs that gun use is acceptable; (3) more cumulative early exposure to neighborhood gun violence predicts more arrests for a weapons crime; and (4) more cumulative early exposure to movie violence predicts more weapon carrying. We argue that youth who observe violence with weapons, whether in the family, among peers, or through the media or video games, are likely to be infected from exposure with a social–cognitive–emotional disease that increases their own risk of behaving violently with weapons later in life.

中文翻译：

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根据童年时期遭受暴力的情况对年轻人的武器使用和犯罪行为进行纵向预测


在这项研究中，我们研究了接触更多武器暴力的青少年是否随后更有可能使用武器实施暴力行为。我们使用了一项 3 队列、4 波、10 年纵向研究收集的数据，研究对象是密歇根州弗林特的 426 名高危青少年，他们是 2006 年至 2007 年二年级、四年级或九年级的学生。这些数据是通过对青少年、他们的父母和老师的单独访谈、学校档案和刑事司法记录以及地理编码的刑事犯罪数据获得的。这些数据表明，早期接触武器暴力与 10 年后携带武器、使用武器或威胁使用武器、因使用武器而被捕以及暴力犯罪行为存在一定程度的显着相关性。多元回归分析控制了儿童的初始攻击性、智力成就以及父母的收入、教育和攻击性，揭示了统计上显着的独立 10 年效应：(1) 家庭内部更早接触武器使用预示着更多使用或威胁性武器的发生。使用枪； (2) 早期暴力视频游戏的累积次数越多，预示着更多的枪支使用或威胁使用武器，并且规范性地认为枪支使用是可以接受的； (3) 早期接触社区枪支暴力的累积次数越多，预示着因武器犯罪而被捕的人数就越多； (4) 早期接触电影暴力的次数越多，预示着携带武器的人数就越多。我们认为，观察到武器暴力的青少年，无论是在家庭中、同龄人之间，还是通过媒体或电子游戏，很可能会因暴露于社会认知情感疾病而受到感染，这种疾病会增加他们使用武器进行暴力行为的风险。晚年的武器。