The private sector plays a crucial role in the economy. This paper constructs an empirical model for the sector in Saudi Arabia. It incorporates oil price uncertainty as well as stock market returns volatility to predict the sector. It estimates the GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) and ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) models. Findings/Originality: Our estimations show significant evidence of a long-run relationship between private investment, oil price, and the stock market. We also find that the stock market index has a significant positive effect on private investment in the short run. The effects are strong in the case of unexpected news from the oil sector. Oil price uncertainty can be considered as a channel of transmission of negative shocks on the private sector. For these reasons, when Saudi Arabia has launched its 2030 vision, it announced that one of its goals is to become a non-oil dependent country.

中文翻译：

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沙特阿拉伯的油价和股市回报不确定性和私人投资

私营部门在经济中发挥着至关重要的作用。本文为沙特阿拉伯的行业构建了一个经验模型。它结合了石油价格的不确定性以及股市回报的波动性来预测该行业。它估计 GARCH（广义自回归条件异方差）和 ARDL（自回归分布滞后）模型。发现/独创性：我们的估计显示了私人投资、石油价格和股票市场之间存在长期关系的重要证据。我们还发现股票市场指数在短期内对私人投资有显着的正向影响。在石油行业出现意外消息的情况下，影响会很大。石油价格的不确定性可以被视为对私营部门传递负面冲击的渠道。由于这些原因，