This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05% of the variations in tourism net service exports.

本文模拟了全球经济政策不确定性 (EPU)、世界工业生产 (WIP) 和美国旅游净出口 (TNX) 支出需求之间的内生关联关系。为此，我们对 1999 年 1 月至 2020 年 10 月的月度数据应用了已识别的结构向量自回归模型。我们的研究结果表明，WIP 的积极冲击对 TNX 的需求具有显着的积极影响。相比之下，价格和 EPU 的意外上涨对 TNX 具有统计上显着的负面影响。我们的研究结果表明，从长远来看，全球 EPU 的一个标准差冲击解释了旅游净服务出口变化的 26.05%。