ABSTRACT

The study used time series data from 1980 to 2018 and the Nonlinear ARDL approach to analyse the asymmetric impacts of fiscal policy on economic growth in Nigeria. The bounds test findings indicated a distinctive nonlinear co-integrating link between fiscal policy variables and economic growth. The empirical findings demonstrated that growth responds asymmetrically to changes in recurrent expenditure in both the long and short run. Economic growth responded symmetrically to changes in petroleum profit tax, customs and excise levies, which was significant in both the long and short run. Variations in domestic and external debt had an uneven impact on growth in the long-run and a balanced relationship in the short-run. Fiscal improvements were advised to broaden the revenue base through an efficient tax administration and collection system, enhance expenditure on vital infrastructure, eliminate unnecessary deficit financing, and invest productively in public debt to stimulate private investment and inclusive growth.

摘要

该研究使用 1980 年至 2018 年的时间序列数据和非线性 ADL 方法来分析财政政策对尼日利亚经济增长的不对称影响。边界检验结果表明财政政策变量与经济增长之间存在独特的非线性协整联系。实证结果表明，增长对长期和短期经常性支出变化的反应不对称。经济增长对石油利润税、关税和消费税的变化做出了对称的反应，这在长期和短期都具有重要意义。内外债变动对经济增长的长期影响不均衡，短期影响平衡。建议改进财政，通过有效的税收管理和征收系统扩大收入基础，