This article uses historical US inflation data covering over two centuries to examine the impact of the establishment of the US Federal Reserve on average US inflation and inflation uncertainty. We find that the founding of the Fed is associated with higher average US inflation and lower inflation uncertainty. Critically, these results are not driven by the post-1980 period, where the Fed policy is characterised by the dual mandate. Other important results are that the gold standard period is associated with both lower inflation and inflation uncertainty, and that banking and stock market crises are a positive determinant of inflation uncertainty and perhaps inflation. World Wars I and II and the US Civil War are associated with both higher inflation and higher inflation uncertainty. In addition, we find that the central bank has responded to increasing inflation uncertainty in a stabilising manner in support of the Holland hypothesis.

中文翻译：

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200 年来美国通胀和通胀不确定性

本文使用跨越两个世纪的美国历史通胀数据来考察美联储成立对美国平均通胀和通胀不确定性的影响。我们发现美联储的成立与更高的美国平均通胀率和更低的通胀不确定性有关。至关重要的是，这些结果并不是由 1980 年后时期推动的，当时美联储政策的特点是双重使命。其他重要结果是，金本位期与较低的通胀和通胀不确定性相关，银行和股市危机是通胀不确定性甚至通胀的积极决定因素。第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战以及美国内战与更高的通货膨胀和更高的通货膨胀不确定性有关。此外，