Peatlands are diverse wetland ecosystems distributed mostly over the northern latitudes and tropics. Globally they store a large portion of the global soil organic carbon and provide important ecosystem services. The future of these systems under continued anthropogenic warming and direct human disturbance has potentially large impacts on atmospheric CO₂ and climate.We performed global long-term projections of peatland area and carbon over the next 5000 years using a dynamic global vegetation model forced with climate anomalies from 10 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and three standard future scenarios. These projections are seamlessly continued from a transient simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present to account for the full transient history and are continued beyond 2100 with constant boundary conditions.Our results suggest short to long-term net losses of global peatland area and carbon, with higher losses under higher-emission scenarios. Large parts of today's active northern peatlands are at risk, whereas peatlands in the tropics and, in case of mitigation, eastern Asia and western North America can increase their area and carbon stocks.Factorial simulations reveal committed historical changes and future rising temperature as the main driver of future peatland loss and increasing precipitations as the driver for regional peatland expansion.Additional simulations forced with climate anomalies from a subset of climate models which follow the extended CMIP6 scenarios, transient until 2300, show qualitatively similar results to the standard scenarios but highlight the importance of extended transient future scenarios for long-term carbon cycle projections.The spread between simulations forced with different climate model anomalies suggests a large uncertainty in projected peatland changes due to uncertain climate forcing.Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the future peatland feedback to the climate system and its inclusion into future earth system model projections.

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承诺和预测全球泥炭地的未来变化——自上次冰川盛期以来持续的瞬态模型模拟

泥炭地是多样化的湿地生态系统，主要分布在北纬和热带地区。在全球范围内，它们储存了大部分全球土壤有机碳并提供重要的生态系统服务。在持续的人为变暖和直接的人为干扰下，这些系统的未来可能对大气 CO ₂产生巨大影响和气候。我们使用动态全球植被模型对未来 5000 年的泥炭地面积和碳进行了全球长期预测，该模型强加了来自耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP6) 的 10 个模型和三个标准未来情景的气候异常。这些预测从末次盛冰期到现在的瞬态模拟无缝延续，以解释完整的瞬态历史，并在 2100 年以后以恒定的边界条件继续。我们的结果表明全球泥炭地面积和碳的短期到长期净损失，在高排放情景下损失更高。今天活跃的北部泥炭地的大部分都处于危险之中，而热带的泥炭地以及在缓解情况下，东亚和北美西部的泥炭地可以增加它们的面积和碳储量。