We analyse how the introduction of the same renewable energy technology at different parts of the electricity supply chain has different price formation effects on wholesale power markets. We develop a multi-stage competitive equilibrium model to evaluate the effects on short-term price formation of a technology shift from conventional to both large-scale renewable energy production (e.g. wind and solar farms) and distributed renewable energy sources (e.g. rooftop solar). We find that wind and solar technologies oppositely affect the forward risk premium, and this is related to technology-varying, risk-related hedging pressures of producers and retailers. We form a multi-factor propositional framework and empirically validate the model by analyzing data from California and Britain; two markets which recently experienced significant increases of renewable power, in terms of utility scale and distributed sources. The work is innovative in showing theoretically and empirically how different types of renewable technologies influence market price formation differently. This has implications for market participants facing wholesale price risks, as well as regulators and policy-makers.

中文翻译：

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可再生能源技术和电力远期市场风险

我们分析了在电力供应链的不同部分引入相同的可再生能源技术如何对批发电力市场产生不同的价格形成影响。我们开发了一个多阶段竞争均衡模型来评估从传统到大规模可再生能源生产（例如风能和太阳能发电场）和分布式可再生能源（例如屋顶太阳能）的技术转变对短期价格形成的影响. 我们发现风能和太阳能技术对远期风险溢价有相反的影响，这与生产商和零售商的技术变化、风险相关的对冲压力有关。我们形成了一个多因素命题框架，并通过分析来自加利福尼亚和英国的数据对模型进行了实证验证；最近在公用事业规模和分布式能源方面经历了可再生能源显着增长的两个市场。这项工作在理论上和实证上展示了不同类型的可再生技术如何不同地影响市场价格形成方面具有创新性。这对面临批发价格风险的市场参与者以及监管机构和政策制定者都有影响。