Abstract

The COVID-19 has posed a real threat to global trade as the forecast shows an unprecedented decline of trade in 2020. In such a situation, trade facilitation (TF) has been considered as an effective strategy to revive trade. However, primary questions emerge - what extent pandemic would affect exports and how much improvement in TF is needed for recovery. The present study endeavours to answer these questions, especially for South Asia. Using augmented gravity model, study finds negative impact of COVID-19 on exports. Based on coefficient estimates, study predicts decline in South Asian economies' export and finds Nepal the most and India the least affected by pandemic. The study also predicts improvement in TF required for all South Asian countries for resilient recovery of their exports. The study extends further by predicting the reduction in other TF measures like costs and time to export to deal with emerging trade challenges.

摘要

COVID-19 对全球贸易构成了真正的威胁，因为预测显示 2020 年贸易将出现前所未有的下降。在这种情况下，贸易便利化 (TF) 被视为重振贸易的有效战略。然而，出现了主要问题——大流行会在多大程度上影响出口以及需要在多大程度上改善 TF 才能恢复。本研究致力于回答这些问题，尤其是针对南亚的问题。使用增强重力模型，研究发现 COVID-19 对出口的负面影响。根据系数估计，研究预测南亚经济体出口下降，发现尼泊尔受大流行影响最大，印度受大流行影响最小。该研究还预测，所有南亚国家出口恢复弹性所需的 TF 都需要改善。