The main goal of this study is to analyze the relation between commercial trade and pandemic severity in society, in order to support new hypotheses which can explain transmission dynamics of COVID-19, as well as promote policy responses to cope with future epidemics similar to COVID-19. This study considers the role of trade in the dynamics of pandemic diffusion, within and between countries, which has not been investigated yet in this emerging field of research. We focus on three large countries in Europe: Italy, France, and Spain. The analysis is performed at regional level (involving in total 52 European regions). Results suggest that the association between trade and pandemic severity seems to be supported by empirical evidence, making it possible to introduce new hypotheses for explaining transmission dynamics of COVID-19 within and between countries. In particular, international trade data is supposed to be used as a comprehensive indicator accounting for population density, economic dynamism, and human mobility. The statistical analyses, also in a multivariate context, strongly support this hypothesis and suggest that crisis management has to focus in the very first place on infections occurring outside the national boundaries, in order to cope with pandemic threat of new waves of COVID-19 and future similar epidemics/pandemics.

本研究的主要目标是分析商业贸易与社会大流行严重程度之间的关系，以支持可以解释 COVID-19 传播动态的新假设，并促进应对未来类似于 COVID 的流行病的政策响应-19. 本研究考虑了贸易在国家内部和国家之间的流行病传播动态中的作用，在这一新兴研究领域尚未对此进行调查。我们专注于欧洲三大国家：意大利、法国和西班牙。分析是在地区层面进行的（涉及总共 52 个欧洲地区）。结果表明，贸易与大流行严重程度之间的关联似乎得到了经验证据的支持，使得可以引入新的假设来解释 COVID-19 在国家内部和国家之间的传播动态。特别是，国际贸易数据应该被用作衡量人口密度、经济活力和人口流动的综合指标。同样在多元背景下的统计分析强烈支持这一假设，并表明危机管理必须首先关注发生在国界之外的感染，以应对新一波 COVID-19 和未来类似的流行病/流行病。