Housing transfer taxes are fiscally important in many countries despite evidence of substantial welfare costs. We argue that the welfare costs are larger than previously thought because previous studies ignore spillovers between treatment and control groups. We analyze the effect of transfer taxes on household mobility using a quasi-experiment arising from a tax reform. To account for spillovers between treatment and control groups, we use a housing market model calibrated to match the mobility rates in our micro data and our quasi-experimental mobility effect estimate. Ignoring the spillovers leads to a 20% underestimation of the negative mobility effect.

尽管有大量福利成本的证据，但在许多国家，住房转让税在财政上很重要。我们认为福利成本比以前认为的要大，因为以前的研究忽略了治疗组和对照组之间的溢出效应。我们使用税收改革产生的准实验来分析转移税对家庭流动性的影响。为了说明治疗组和对照组之间的溢出效应，我们使用了一个经过校准的住房市场模型，以匹配我们微观数据中的流动率和我们的准实验流动效应估计。忽略溢出会导致对负面流动性效应的低估 20%。