We estimate the effects of long-run pollution exposure on mortality by exploiting the United States Acid Rain Program (ARP) as a natural experiment. We use a difference-in-differences design to compare changes in adult mortality over time driven by installations of sulfur controls on power plants, combined with a model of atmospheric pollution transport. We find that sulfur controls reduced pollution immediately, with smaller relative improvements in the following years. Mortality reductions started small and grew steadily, suggesting cumulative health effects over time. We also find persistent mortality effects for those 35–64 years of age, suggesting the ARP had large productivity gains for the working-age population.

我们通过利用美国酸雨计划 (ARP) 作为自然实验来估计长期污染暴露对死亡率的影响。我们使用差异中的差异设计来比较由在发电厂上安装硫控制装置驱动的成人死亡率随时间的变化，并结合大气污染传输模型。我们发现硫控制立即减少了污染，在接下来的几年中相对改善较小。死亡率的下降开始很小并稳步增长，这表明随着时间的推移累积的健康影响。我们还发现 35-64 岁人群的持续死亡率影响，表明 ARP 对工作年龄人口的生产力有很大提高。