ABSTRACT This study presents an analytical framework for predicting the conditions under which North Korea would choose a particular nuclear strategy. Based on the assessment of North Korea’s strategic environment, which involves its national identity and interests, strategic goals, relations with allies, and military capabilities, the nuclear strategy choice model presented in this study explains how North Korea’s beliefs about its relative capabilities vis-à-vis the US and South Korea determine its strategy regarding the employment of nuclear weapons. As such, this study represents a necessary extension of the prior literature, which has focused on static theories concerning North Korea’s nuclear strategy. This study concludes by offering policy recommendations for dealing with a nuclear-armed North Korea.

中文翻译：

---

朝鲜对核战略的选择：一种动态的方法

摘要 本研究提出了一个分析框架，用于预测朝鲜将选择特定核战略的条件。基于对朝鲜战略环境的评估，包括其国家认同和利益、战略目标、与盟友的关系以及军事能力，本研究中提出的核战略选择模型解释了朝鲜对其相对能力的看法如何- 对美国和韩国确定其使用核武器的战略。因此，本研究代表了先前文献的必要扩展，这些文献侧重于有关朝鲜核战略的静态理论。本研究最后提出了应对拥有核武器的朝鲜的政策建议。