ABSTRACT How might nuclear deterrence be affected by the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems? How might the introduction of intelligent machines affect human-to-human (and human-to-machine) deterrence? Are existing theories of deterrence still applicable in the age of AI and autonomy? The article builds on the rich body of work on nuclear deterrence theory and practice and highlights some of the variegated and contradictory – especially human cognitive psychological – effects of AI and autonomy for nuclear deterrence. It argues that existing theories of deterrence are not applicable in the age of AI and autonomy and introducing intelligent machines into the nuclear enterprise will affect nuclear deterrence in unexpected ways with fundamentally destabilising outcomes. The article speaks to a growing consensus calling for conceptual innovation and novel approaches to nuclear deterrence, building on nascent post-classical deterrence theorising that considers the implications of introducing non-human agents into human strategic interactions.

中文翻译：

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人工智能和自主时代的威慑：核威慑理论和实践的范式转变？

摘要 人工智能 (AI) 和自主系统的扩散如何影响核威慑？智能机器的引入会如何影响人对人（和人对机器）的威慑？现有的威慑理论在人工智能和自主时代是否仍然适用？这篇文章建立在核威慑理论和实践方面的丰富工作基础之上，并强调了人工智能和自主性对核威慑的一些多样化和相互矛盾的影响——尤其是人类认知心理——影响。它认为现有的威慑理论不适用于人工智能和自治时代，将智能机器引入核企业将以意想不到的方式影响核威慑，并从根本上破坏稳定的结果。