I revisit claims that the Cold War had no meaningful effect on civil war after 1990 by probing its empirical veracity. I argue and employ a Bartik-style difference-in-differences identification strategy to show that countries with greater political grievances during the Cold War were more likely to experience civil war after the Cold War. I provide evidence suggesting that changes in the credibility of external support to both governments and rebels affected this uptick in conflict onset in aggrieved countries. These findings suggest the confluence of geopolitics and preexisting grievances played a causal role in civil war after the Cold War.

中文翻译：

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从不满到内战：地缘政治的影响

我通过探究其经验的真实性，重新审视冷战对 1990 年之后的内战没有有意义的影响的说法。我论证并采用了 Bartik 式的差异中差异识别策略来表明冷战期间政治不满的国家更有可能在冷战后经历内战。我提供的证据表明，对政府和反叛者的外部支持可信度的变化影响了受害国家冲突爆发的这种上升。这些发现表明，地缘政治和先前存在的不满的汇合在冷战后的内战中发挥了因果作用。