To identify general patterns in the effect of climate-driven changes in the outbreak frequency of forest defoliating species, we examined 60 years of records (1950–2010) of outbreaks of five defoliating species. Data on Lymantria dispar, Lymantria monacha, Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, and Operophtera brumata from five Central European countries (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, and Germany), where the current climate is comparable with the projections of climate for the Eastern Baltic region by the end of the 21st century, were analyzed. Time series approach was applied to estimate the linkage between outbreaks and climate warming. Mean annual, summer, and winter deviations for the period of 1850 to 1900 were assessed as proxies of warming. To estimate the legacy effect, warming proxies were lagged by one year. Among those tested, warming proxies showed a linkage with outbreaks. Three significant outbreaks occurred in the analyzed period (at the beginning and end of the period). During the middle part of the analyzed period, the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks were low, implicating a higher insect outbreak risk with warming in Central Europe. In the latter part of the analyzed period, more frequent yet smaller outbreaks occurred, which supports the outbreak linkage with one-year lag, summer, and annual temperatures.

中文翻译：

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落叶昆虫爆发的趋势凸显了对中欧森林日益增长的威胁以及对波罗的海东部地区的影响

为了确定气候驱动变化对森林落叶物种爆发频率影响的一般模式，我们检查了 60 年（1950-2010 年）五种落叶物种爆发的记录。数据对舞毒蛾，舞白头鹤，Bupalus piniarius，Panolis flammea和Operophtera蛾对来自五个中欧国家（斯洛伐克、捷克共和国、奥地利、匈牙利和德国）的气候进行了分析，这些国家目前的气候与 21 世纪末东波罗的海地区的气候预测相当。应用时间序列方法来估计疫情与气候变暖之间的联系。1850 年至 1900 年期间的年平均、夏季和冬季偏差被评估为变暖的代表。为了估计遗留效应，变暖代理滞后了一年。在接受测试的人中，变暖的指标显示出与爆发的联系。在分析期间（期间开始和结束时）发生了 3 次重大爆发。在分析期间的中期，爆发的频率和规模较低，暗示随着中欧变暖，昆虫爆发的风险更高。在分析期的后期，发生了更频繁但规模较小的暴发，这支持暴发与滞后一年、夏季和年气温之间的联系。