Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics in marine fish populations is essential for the development of effective adaptive management strategies. Many marine fish species undergo ontogenetic shifts in abundance, with the utilization of productive shelf-based habitats during early life-history stages. For instance, in the shelf ecosystem around the Falkland Islands, a dynamic Patagonian toothfish population undertakes an early life-history ontogenetic migration after recruitment from spawning areas off southern Chile and the Burdwood Bank. To better understand the spatial-temporal dynamics for this species, Bayesian species distribution models were used to (1) identify oceanographic drivers of recruitment success; (2) assess the spatial-temporal distribution patterns; and (3) describe the habitat preferences and ecological interactions during a six-year study period (2015–2020) on the Patagonian Shelf. The presence of seasonal mesoscale eddies linking the Sub-Antarctic Front with the Falkland Current appear to be of primary importance for the survival of toothfish eggs and larvae on the shelf after transport from offshore spawning areas over the Burdwood Bank and southern Chile. Results indicate persistent recruitment hotspots for newly-settled Patagonian toothfish to the north-east, along with opportunistic areas to the south and west of the Falkland Islands, coinciding with the main areas of upwelling and high productivity. During years of low recruitment, juveniles are largely constrained to sheltered inshore regions to the north-west of the Falkland Islands. Spatial distribution patterns during post-settlement ontogenetic migrations are progressive, characterised by age-structured hotspots that differ according to depth, current velocity, oxygen, mixed-layer thickness, the abundance of competitors (icefish – Champsocephalus esox) and prey (rock cod – Patagonotothen ramsayi). The temporal shift in the range and intensity of hotspots is linked to levels of recruitment and subsequent cohort strength, which in turn appears to be driven by oceanographic processes. Understanding the environmental influences on recruitment dynamics is a key step in assessing connectivity within these discrete spatial groups on the Patagonian Shelf, and how their variability can influence the adult population over time.

了解海洋鱼类种群的时空动态对于制定有效的适应性管理策略至关重要。许多海洋鱼类物种经历了丰富的个体遗传变化，在生命史的早期阶段利用了生产性的陆架栖息地。例如，在福克兰群岛周围的陆架生态系统中，一个充满活力的巴塔哥尼亚牙鱼种群在从智利南部和伯德伍德银行附近的产卵区招募后进行了早期的生活史个体遗传迁移。为了更好地了解该物种的时空动态，贝叶斯物种分布模型被用于（1）确定招募成功的海洋学驱动因素；(2) 评估时空分布格局；(3) 描述巴塔哥尼亚大陆架六年研究期间（2015-2020）的栖息地偏好和生态相互作用。连接亚南极锋和福克兰海流的季节性中尺度涡流的存在似乎对从伯德伍德海岸和智利南部的近海产卵区运输到架子上的齿鱼卵和幼虫的生存至关重要。结果表明，东北部新定居的巴塔哥尼亚牙鱼以及福克兰群岛南部和西部的机会主义区域持续存在招募热点，这与上升流和高生产力的主要区域相吻合。在招募人数较低的年份，青少年在很大程度上被限制在福克兰群岛西北部的隐蔽近海地区。Champsocephalus esox）和猎物（岩鳕鱼 – Patagonotothen ramsayi）。热点范围和强度的时间变化与招募水平和随后的队列强度有关，而这又似乎是由海洋学过程驱动的。了解环境对招募动态的影响是评估巴塔哥尼亚大陆架上这些离散空间组内的连通性以及它们的可变性如何随着时间的推移影响成年人口的关键步骤。