Assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced from electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen vehicles (HVs) requires understanding of the carbon intensity of electricity generation. Without the decarbonisation of electricity generation, environmental benefits of low emission vehicles (LEVs) will be diminished. The UK aims to produce net zero emissions by phasing out and banning the sale of new conventionally fuelled vehicles (CFVs) by 2035 in favour of LEVs. A comparison of the UK’s planned and future electricity production systems between 2020 and 2050 was conducted to analyse different vehicle-type mix scenarios: (1) 100% CFVs, (2 A/B) 100% EVs/HVs, (3 A/B) EVs/HVs integrated from 2035 and (4 A/B) EVs/HVs integrated from 2025 onward. This was conducted using four energy scenarios from the UK National Grid: two degrees, steady progression, consumer evolution and community renewables. This study does not consider the embedded carbon costs of the construction and decommissioning of vehicles. Results demonstrated that while the four electricity generation scenarios reduce the projected emissions they fail to achieve low emission targets. The two degree scenario produced the lowest level of emissions under each vehicle-type mix scenario. Technological improvements of CFVs are not enough to meet targets. Therefore, phasing out and banning the sale of new CFVs from 2025 (rather than 2035) would provide a stronger impetus to reduce transport emissions. Although these targets are possible, encouraging a change in transport modes from individual travel to public transport whilst simultaneously replacing buses and trains with electric or hydrogen alternatives would see a greater emission decrease.

评估电动汽车 (EV) 和氢能汽车 (HV) 产生的温室气体 (GHG) 排放需要了解发电的碳强度。如果发电不脱碳，低排放车辆 (LEV) 的环境效益将被削弱。英国的目标是到 2035 年逐步淘汰和禁止销售新型传统燃料汽车 (CFV)，转而使用 LEV，从而实现净零排放。对英国在 2020 年和 2050 年之间计划和未来的电力生产系统进行了比较，以分析不同的车型混合情景：(1) 100% CFV，(2 A/B) 100% EV/HV，(3 A/B ) 从 2035 年起集成的 EV/HV 和从 2025 年起集成的 (4 A/B) EV/HV。这是使用英国国家电网的四种能源情景进行的：两度，稳定进展，消费者进化和社区可再生能源。本研究未考虑车辆建造和退役的嵌入式碳成本。结果表明，虽然四种发电情景减少了预计排放，但未能实现低排放目标。在每种车辆类型混合情景下，二级情景产生的排放水平最低。CFV 的技术改进不足以实现目标。因此，从 2025 年（而不是 2035 年）开始逐步淘汰和禁止销售新的 CFV 将为减少运输排放提供更强大的动力。虽然这些目标是可能的，