The house price-to-income ratio (PIR) is widely used as an affordability indicator. This paper complements the cross-sectionally focused literature by proposing a tractable model for the PIR dynamics. Our model predicts that the PIR is very persistent and is correlated to the lagged aggregate output. Cross-country analysis confirms this prediction and provides evidence for a long-term, positive, and significant relationship between PIR and aggregate production. Our results hint at the construction of an early warning system for housing market mispricing. Our tractable formulation of a stochastic money growth rule may carry independent research interest.

中文翻译：

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房价收入比的动态变化：理论与实证

房价收入比 (PIR) 被广泛用作负担能力指标。本文通过提出一个易于处理的 PIR 动力学模型来补充横截面文献。我们的模型预测 PIR 非常持久并且与滞后的总输出相关。跨国分析证实了这一预测，并为 PIR 与总产量之间的长期、积极和重要的关系提供了证据。我们的结果暗示了住房市场定价错误的预警系统的构建。我们对随机货币增长规则的易处理公式可能会引起独立的研究兴趣。