Abstract We computed the impact solutions of the potentially dangerous Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) 2001 BB16 based on 47 optical observations from January 20.08316 UTC, 2001, through February 09.15740 UTC, 2016, and one radar observation from January 19.90347 UTC, 2016. We used two methods to sample the starting Line of Variation (LOV). First method, called thereafter LOV1, with the uniform sampling of the LOV parameter, out to LOV = 5 computing 3000 virtual asteroids (VAs) on both sides of the LOV, which gives 6001 VAs and propagated their orbits to JD2525000.5 TDT=February 12, 2201. We computed the non-gravitational parameter A2=(34.55±7.38)·10–14 au/d2 for nominal orbit of 2001 BB16 and possible impacts with the Earth until 2201. For potential impact in 2195 we find A2=20.0·10−14 au/d2. With a positive value of A2, 2001 BB16 can be prograde rotator. Moreover, we computed Lyapunov Time (LT) for 2001 BB16, which for all VAs, has a mean value of about 25 y. We showed that impact solutions, including the calculated probability of a possible collision of a 2001 BB16 asteroid with the Earth depends on how to calculate and take into account the appropriate gravitational model, including the number of perturbing massive asteroids. In some complicated cases, it may depend also on the number of clones calculated for a given sigma LOV1. The second method of computing the impact solutions, called thereafter LOV2, is based on a non-uniformly sampling of the LOV. We showed that different methods of sampling the LOV can give different impact solutions, but all computed dates of possible impacts of the asteroid 2001 BB16 with the Earth occur in accordance at the end of the 22nd century.

中文翻译：

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潜在危险 NEA 2001 BB16

摘要 我们基于 2001 年 1 月 20.08316 UTC 至 2016 年 2 月 09.15740 UTC 的 47 次光学观测和 2016 年 1 月 19.90347 UTC 的一次雷达观测计算了潜在危险的近地小行星 (NEA) 2001 BB16 的撞击解决方案。两种方法对起始变异线 (LOV) 进行采样。第一种方法，此后称为 LOV1，对 LOV 参数进行均匀采样，输出到 LOV = 5，计算 LOV 两侧的 3000 个虚拟小行星 (VA)，得到 6001 个虚拟小行星，并将它们的轨道传播到 JD2525000.5 TDT=February 2201 年 1 月 12 日。我们计算了 2001 BB16 标称轨道的非引力参数 A2=(34.55±7.38)·10–14 au/d2 以及到 2201 年可能对地球的影响。对于 2195 年的潜在影响，我们发现 A2=20.0 ·10−14 au/d2。A2 为正值时，2001 BB16 可以是顺行旋转器。此外，我们计算了 2001 BB16 的李雅普诺夫时间 (LT)，对于所有 VA，其平均值约为 25 y。我们展示了撞击解决方案，包括 2001 年 BB16 小行星与地球可能发生碰撞的计算概率，取决于如何计算和考虑适当的引力模型，包括扰动的大质量小行星的数量。在一些复杂的情况下，它还可能取决于为给定的 sigma LOV1 计算的克隆数。计算影响解决方案的第二种方法（此后称为 LOV2）基于 LOV 的非均匀采样。我们展示了不同的 LOV 采样方法可以给出不同的影响解决方案，