Research on probabilistic reasoning has discovered several systematic errors, among which base rate neglect and the fallacy of the transposed conditional have featured prominently. This article introduces the term miss rate neglect to capture the systematic failure to properly account for false positives, i.e. the probability of evidence (E) given the hypothesis (H) is false, P(E|~H). Miss rate neglect occurs when decision makers (i) completely disregard the miss rate; (ii) underestimate the importance of differences in the miss rate, or (iii) overlook circumstances that affect the miss rate. We explain the relevance of miss rate neglect for legal decision making, review extant literature, present new experimental work that empirically validates options (ii) and (iii), and propose experimental variations that future research may pursue.

中文翻译：

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法律证据中的漏报率疏忽

概率推理的研究发现了一些系统性错误，其中基本率忽略和转置条件的谬误尤为突出。本文介绍了术语忽略率忽略以捕获正确解释误报的系统性失败，即给定假设 (H) 为假的证据概率 (E)，P(E|~H)。当决策者 (i) 完全忽视未命中率时，就会发生未命中率忽视；(ii) 低估了未命中率差异的重要性，或 (iii) 忽略了影响未命中率的情况。我们解释了疏忽率与法律决策的相关性，回顾了现有文献，提出了新的实验工作来实证验证选项 (ii) 和 (iii)，并提出未来研究可能追求的实验变化。