There are many well documented behavioral biases in financial markets. Yet, analyzing U.S. equities reveals that less than 1% of returns are predictable in recent years. Given the high number of biases, why are returns not more predictable? We provide new evidence in support of one possible explanation. In the long-run, low correlations across signals that trigger biases may create sufficient antinoise which mutes more sizable patterns in returns. However, in the short-run, correlation spikes coincide with market volatility indicating that behavioral biases may become more visible during crises.

中文翻译：

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美国股市的抗噪

金融市场中存在许多有据可查的行为偏见。然而，对美国股市的分析表明，近年来只有不到 1% 的回报是可预测的。考虑到大量的偏差，为什么回报不是更可预测的？我们提供了新的证据来支持一种可能的解释。从长远来看，触发偏差的信号之间的低相关性可能会产生足够的抗噪声，从而使更多的回报模式静音。然而，在短期内，相关性峰值与市场波动同时出现，表明在危机期间行为偏差可能会变得更加明显。