The outbreak of COVI-19 and the restrictive measures on the mobility of people in Brazil have raised serious concerns about the survival and recovery of passenger transport companies, especially those that generate public agglomerations. There are some policy proposals that aim to recover this set of sectors in the face of the adverse effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study contributes to this debate in course and analyzes the economic effects of two scenarios of recovery for this type of transport services in the Brazilian economy up to the end of 2022: (i) one with a 50% recovery until the end of 2021 and (ii) another with a 50% sectorial recovery until June 2022. This distinction allows us to assess the impact of the speed of recovery. In both scenarios, we also consider likely changes in the labor market, family preferences, and government spending. To accomplish this task, we developed a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that recognizes a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and has details of the transport sectors. The main findings suggest that the drop in these transport services is the main contributing factor to the decline in the Brazilian GDP growth (−2.2%) in the period of social distance measures. However, faster recovery of these sectors can generate a marginal effect of 0.5 percentage points on GDP at the end of 2021. In the recovery period, due to the redistributive effects of income, the family demand for public transport is expected to grow post- COVID-19 outbreak, while the demand for private transport is reduced, especially in the basket of goods of the poorest households. Vehicle, bus, and aircraft manufacture seems sensitive to the recovery time of the demand for transport services with public agglomerations.

COVI-19的爆发和巴西对人员流动的限制措施引发了人们对客运公司，特别是那些产生公共聚集的客运公司的生存和复苏的严重担忧。有一些政策建议旨在面对 COVID-19 疫情的不利影响，恢复这组行业。本研究对这一争论做出了贡献，并分析了到 2022 年底巴西经济中此类运输服务的两种复苏情景的经济影响：(i) 一种到 2021 年底复苏 50%，以及(ii) 到 2022 年 6 月，另一个部门的复苏率为 50%。这种区别使我们能够评估复苏速度的影响。在这两种情况下，我们还考虑了劳动力市场、家庭偏好和政府支出可能发生的变化。为了完成这项任务，我们开发了一个动态可计算一般均衡模型，该模型可识别社会核算矩阵 (SAM) 并包含运输部门的详细信息。主要发现表明，这些交通服务的下降是社会距离措施期间巴西GDP增长率下降（-2.2%）的主要因素。然而，这些行业的较快复苏，可能会在2021年底对GDP产生0.5个百分点的边际效应。在恢复期内，由于收入的再分配效应，家庭对公共交通的需求预计将在疫情后增长。 -19疫情爆发，同时对私人交通的需求减少，尤其是最贫困家庭的一篮子货物。汽车、公共汽车和飞机制造似乎对公共聚集区交通服务需求的恢复时间很敏感。