In a fast-changing world, polar ecosystems are threatened by climate variability. Understanding the roles of fine-scale processes, and linear and nonlinear effects of climate factors on the demography of polar species is crucial for anticipating the future state of these fragile ecosystems. While the effects of sea ice on polar marine top predators are increasingly being studied, little is known about the impacts of landfast ice (LFI) on this species community. Based on a unique 39-year time series of satellite imagery and in situ meteorological conditions and on the world's longest dataset of emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) breeding parameters, we studied the effects of fine-scale variability of LFI and weather conditions on this species' reproductive success. We found that longer distances to the LFI edge (i.e. foraging areas) negatively affected the overall breeding success but also the fledging success. Climate window analyses suggested that chick mortality was particularly sensitive to LFI variability between August and November. Snowfall in May also affected hatching success. Given the sensitivity of LFI to storms and changes in wind direction, important future repercussions on the breeding habitat of emperor penguins are to be expected in the context of climate change.

在瞬息万变的世界中，极地生态系统受到气候多变性的威胁。了解精细过程的作用，以及气候因素对极地物种人口统计的线性和非线性影响，对于预测这些脆弱生态系统的未来状态至关重要。虽然越来越多地研究海冰对极地海洋顶级捕食者的影响，但人们对陆上冰（LFI）对该物种群落的影响知之甚少。基于独特的 39 年卫星图像时间序列和现场气象条件以及世界上最长的帝企鹅 ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) 数据集) 育种参数，我们研究了 LFI 和天气条件的精细变化对该物种繁殖成功的影响。我们发现到 LFI 边缘（即觅食区）的较长距离对整体育种成功产生负面影响，同时也对初生成功产生负面影响。气候窗口分析表明，雏鸡死亡率对 8 月至 11 月之间的 LFI 变化特别敏感。5 月的降雪也影响了孵化成功率。鉴于 LFI 对风暴和风向变化的敏感性，在气候变化的背景下，预计未来会对帝企鹅的繁殖栖息地产生重要影响。