We developed a new type of generalized depletion model adapted to the rapid life cycle of Octopus vulgaris and the data collection framework put in place in its co-managed small-scale fishery (SSF) in Asturias, northwest Spain. The model uses weekly data from 19 seasons to estimate annual recruitment and female spawners emigration out of the vulnerable stock to attend to their broods. The matched annual spawners-recruitment (SR) magnitudes are then used as observations in a non-Bayesian hierarchical inference framework. The Shepherd SR model was selected among three alternatives. The stock has a high degree of density-dependence, leading to overcompensation. The estimated SR model has an unstable equilibrium point, driving the stock to deterministic cyclic fluctuations under small disturbances. Under those conditions the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is not applicable, lending further credence to Sidney Holt’s opposition to the MSY as a basis for the elaboration of fishery management objectives, with potentially wide relevance to the management of SSF and cephalopod fisheries. We argue that harvest rates based on mean latent productivity, a concept that includes the MSY as a special case, are more adequate and sustainable for fluctuating stocks.

中文翻译：

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用广义耗竭模型估计阿斯图里亚斯（比斯开湾）普通章鱼的产卵存量和补充关系：对 MSY 适用性的影响

我们开发了一种新型的广义耗竭模型，以适应普通章鱼的快速生命周期，并在西班牙西北部阿斯图里亚斯的共同管理的小规模渔业 (SSF) 中实施了数据收集框架。该模型使用来自 19 个季节的每周数据来估计年度招募和女性产卵者从易受伤害的种群中迁出以照顾他们的后代。然后将匹配的年度产卵者招募 (SR) 幅度用作非贝叶斯分层推理框架中的观察值。Shepherd SR 模型是在三个备选方案中选择的。股票具有高度的密度依赖性，导致过度补偿。估计的 SR 模型有一个不稳定的平衡点，驱动股票在小扰动下确定性的周期性波动。在这些条件下，最大可持续产量 (MSY) 不适用，这进一步证明了 Sidney Holt 反对将 MSY 作为制定渔业管理目标的基础，这可能与 SSF 和头足类渔业的管理具有广泛的相关性。我们认为，基于平均潜在生产力（将 MSY 作为特例包括在内的概念）的收割率对于波动的存量来说更充分和可持续。