Olive orchards represent a key agricultural system with high economic and environmental prominence. Expected future climate tendencies over the Mediterranean could threaten the sustainability of such strategic tree crop. This study evaluates the productive and environmental performance of olive orchards under different climate change scenarios and management strategies across the main olive-farming regions over southern Europe using the process-based model OliveCan. Simulations were performed for low density LD (100 trees ha⁻¹), high density HD (400 trees ha⁻¹) and super high density SHD (1650 trees ha⁻¹) olive orchards over baseline period (1980-2010) and future scenarios (2041–2070 and 2071–2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results showed that the future increase in CO₂ concentration may compensate the negative effects of higher evaporative demand and diminished water supply resulting in an enhancement of water use efficiency and carbon capture potential in olive orchards. Irrigation requirement for the maximum productivity are expected to increase by 5−27%. Moreover, rainfed low density orchards will be the most vulnerable to expected climate changes, in particular in the driest areas. In fact, a decrease in yield up to 28 % with an increase in its interannual variability of 20 % is expected over the Iberian Peninsula while yield increased up to 26 % over the centre of the Mediterranean. Deficit irrigation and intensification will improve olive orchard productivity and carbon sequestration capacity. Besides, the decrease in winter chilling is not expected to be enough to produce significant flowering anomalies or failures over the study area. Even though findings of this research showed that olive orchards may benefit from future conditions, assessment of management alternatives at local scale will be a must for a better adaptability of olive orchards.

橄榄园是经济和环境突出的重要农业系统。地中海未来预期的气候趋势可能会威胁到这种战略性树木作物的可持续性。本研究使用基于过程的模型 OliveCan 评估了南欧主要橄榄种植区在不同气候变化情景和管理策略下橄榄园的生产和环境绩效。对低密度 LD（100 棵树 ha ^-1）、高密度 HD（400 棵树 ha ^-1）和超高密度 SHD（1650 棵树 ha ^-1）进行了模拟）橄榄园在基线期（1980-2010 年）和未来情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 的 2041-2070 年和 2071-2100 年）。结果表明，未来 CO _{2 的}增加浓度可能会补偿更高的蒸发需求和供水减少的负面影响，从而提高橄榄园的用水效率和碳捕获潜力。最大生产力的灌溉需求预计将增加 5-27%。此外，雨养低密度果园将最容易受到预期气候变化的影响，尤其是在最干旱的地区。事实上，预计伊比利亚半岛的产量将下降 28%，年际变化增加 20%，而地中海中部的产量将增加 26%。灌溉不足和集约化将提高橄榄园的生产力和固碳能力。除了，预计冬季寒冷的减少不足以在研究区域产生显着的开花异常或失败。尽管这项研究的结果表明橄榄园可能会从未来的条件中受益，但对当地规模的管理替代方案进行评估将是提高橄榄园适应性的必要条件。