The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), generating high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths, is still circulating in 2021 with new variants of the coronavirus, such that the state of emergency remains in manifold countries. Currently, there is still a lack of a full understanding of the factors determining the COVID-19 diffusion that clarify the causes of the variability of infections across different provinces and regions within countries. The main goal of this study is to explain new and main determinants underlying the diffusion of COVID-19 in society. This study focuses on international trade because this factor, in a globalized world, can synthetize different drivers of virus spread, such as mobility patterns, economic potentialities, and social interactions of an investigated areas. A case study research is performed on 107 provinces of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Statistical analyses from March 2020 to February 2021 suggest that total import and export of provinces has a high association with confirmed cases over time (average r > 0.78, p-value <.001). Overall, then, this study suggests total import and export as complex indicator of COVID-19 transmission dynamics that outclasses other common parameters used to justify the COVID-19 spread, given by economic, demographic, environmental, and climate factors. In addition, this study proposes, for the first time, a time-dependent correlation analysis between trade data and COVID-19 infection cases to explain the relation between confirmed cases and social interactions that are a main source of the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent negative impact in society. These novel findings have main theoretical and practical implications directed to include a new parameter in modelling of the diffusion of COVID-19 pandemic to support effective policy responses of crisis management directed to constrain the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and similar infectious diseases in society.

导致 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的新型严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 产生了大量与 COVID-19 相关的感染者和死亡，该病毒在 2021 年仍在传播，并带有 SARS-CoV-2 的新变种冠状病毒，因此许多国家仍处于紧急状态。目前，对决定 COVID-19 传播的因素仍缺乏充分的了解，这些因素阐明了国家内不同省份和地区感染变异的原因。本研究的主要目标是解释 COVID-19 在社会中传播的新的主要决定因素。本研究侧重于国际贸易，因为在全球化的世界中，这一因素可以综合病毒传播的不同驱动因素，例如流动模式、经济潜力、和调查区域的社会互动。对意大利的 107 个省份进行了案例研究，意大利是最早出现确诊病例和死亡人数快速增长的国家之一。2020年3月至2021年2月的统计分析表明，各省进出口总额与确诊病例随时间推移具有高度相关性（平均r  > 0.78, p-值 <.001)。总的来说，这项研究表明，进出口总额是 COVID-19 传播动态的复杂指标，优于其他用于证明 COVID-19 传播合理性的常用参数，这些参数由经济、人口、环境和气候因素给出。此外，这项研究首次提出了贸易数据与 COVID-19 感染病例之间的时间相关性分析，以解释确诊病例与社交互动之间的关系，社交互动是 SARS-CoV 传播的主要来源。 2 以及随之而来的社会负面影响。