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Meteorological drought and its large-scale climate patterns in each season in Central Asia from 1901 to 2015
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-15 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03131-y
Xuezhen Zhang , Miao He , Mengxin Bai , Quansheng Ge

The long-term variations in meteorological drought and its large-scale climate patterns in each season in Central Asia from 1901 to 2015 remain unclear. Here, this issue is addressed using meteorology measurements and reanalysis data through correlation and composite analyses. The drought intensity index (DII) and extent index (DEI) do not exhibit significant linear trends from 1901 to 2015 but do exhibit interannual to interdecadal variations. Both the DII and DEI are highly correlated with the tropical Niño 4 sea surface temperature (SST) and extratropical atmospheric teleconnections, including the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, the East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) pattern, and the Arctic oscillation (AO), but with seasonal discrepancies in terms of the degree of influence. The winter drought is strongly linked to both the negative EA and negative EAWR patterns, while spring and autumn drought are strongly linked to the negative EAWR and negative EA patterns, respectively. In the winter, spring, and autumn, drought is also closely linked to below normal Niño 4 SST. The links to EA and EAWR patterns are mainly derived from their impacts on precipitation in the central and northern sectors, while the link to Niño 4 SST is mainly derived from its impacts on precipitation in the southern sector. By considering both drought intensity and drought extent, the ten extreme drought years for each season are selected and, through composite analysis, their large-scale climate patterns are studied. The extreme drought generally occurs in the contexts of a negative EA pattern in winter, a negative EAWR pattern in spring, and a negative AO pattern in autumn. As an exception, summer drought is weakly correlated with Niño 4 SST and is not correlated with extratropical atmospheric teleconnections.



中文翻译:

1901-2015年中亚各季气象干旱及其大尺度气候格局

1901-2015年中亚各季节气象干旱的长期变化及其大尺度气候模式尚不清楚。在这里,通过相关和综合分析,使用气象测量和再分析数据来解决这个问题。干旱强度指数(DII)和程度指数(DEI)从 1901 年到 2015 年没有表现出显着的线性趋势,但确实表现出年际到年代际变化。DII 和 DEI 均与热带 Niño 4 海面温度 (SST) 和温带大气遥相关高度相关,包括东大西洋 (EA) 模式、东大西洋/西俄罗斯 (EAWR) 模式和北极振荡 (AO) ),但在影响程度方面存在季节性差异。冬季干旱与负 EAWR 和负 EAWR 模式密切相关,而春季和秋季干旱分别与负 EAWR 和负 EAWR 模式密切相关。在冬、春、秋三季,干旱也与低于常年的 Niño 4 SST 密切相关。与 EA 和 EAWR 模式的联系主要来源于它们对中部和北部地区降水的影响,而与 Niño 4 SST 的联系主要来源于其对南部地区降水的影响。综合考虑干旱强度和干旱程度,选取每个季节的10个极端干旱年份,通过综合分析,研究它们的大尺度气候格局。极端干旱通常发生在冬季负 EA 模式、春季负 EAWR 模式、和秋季负 AO 模式。作为一个例外,夏季干旱与 Niño 4 SST 的相关性较弱,与温带大气遥相关无关。

更新日期:2021-06-15
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