The North Pacific Victoria mode: More effective prediction signal for the Central Pacific El Niño than the North Pacific Oscillation,International Journal of Climatology

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The North Pacific Victoria mode: More effective prediction signal for the Central Pacific El Niño than the North Pacific Oscillation
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-15 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7256
Qi Li ₁ , Mao Xin ₁

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By use of observational reanalysis data and the CMIP5 data, the relationships of the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño and the Victoria Mode (VM)/North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) are compared. The VM/NPO and the CP El Niño are physically related via negative feedback process of air–sea interaction. The VM/NPO has a delay effect on the CP ENSO in the subsequent winter. Nevertheless, the impact of VM on the CP El Niño is more effective relative to the NPO. When the conventional ENSO (hereafter as ENSO) own cycle is removed, the former's correlation with the EMI (El Niño Modoki index) in the Dec(+1) only decreases from 0.48 to 0.31, which is still significant. But the latter's correlation dose not reach 95% confidence level. Composition analysis also shows that during the D(+1)JF(+2), very few SST anomalies could be found over 95% significant level whether in positive or negative NPO phase. While for the VM cases, a large area of the CP ENSO-like SST anomalies is observed significantly in the tropical Pacific. Especially, for non-ENSO year, CP El Niño occurs in 50% positive VM cases' following winter. Although in previous studies, the VM is only considered as a transition stage during the process of NPO affecting the CP El Niño, the regression analysis shows that the VM is a partly natural mode, most of its variation is contributed by its internal evolution. The CP El Niño would still occur during positive VM cases even when NPO phase is negative. Their relationship remains stable in the CMIP5 RCP8.5 simulations, that is, the global warming does not interfere with the impact of positive VM on the CP El Niño. In conclusion, the VM may be a more effective prediction signal for the CP El Niño than the NPO.

中文翻译：

北太平洋维多利亚模式：中太平洋厄尔尼诺比北太平洋涛动更有效的预测信号

利用观测再分析资料和CMIP5资料，比较了中太平洋（CP）厄尔尼诺现象与维多利亚模式（VM）/北太平洋涛动（NPO）的关系。VM/NPO 和 CP 厄尔尼诺现象通过海气相互作用的负反馈过程在物理上相关。VM/NPO 在随后的冬季对 CP ENSO 有延迟作用。然而，相对于 NPO，VM 对 CP El Niño 的影响更为有效。去除常规ENSO（以下简称ENSO）自身周期后，前者与12月（+1）年EMI（厄尔尼诺莫多基指数）的相关性仅从0.48降至0.31，仍显着。但后者的相关性未达到95%的置信水平。成分分析还表明，在 D(+1)JF(+2) 期间，无论是在正或负 NPO 阶段，都很少能发现超过 95% 显着水平的 SST 异常。而对于 VM 情况，在热带太平洋地区观察到大面积的类似 CP ENSO 的 SST 异常。特别是对于非 ENSO 年份，CP 厄尔尼诺现象在 50% 的阳性 VM 病例中出现在冬季之后。虽然在以往的研究中，VM仅被认为是NPO影响中部厄尔尼诺过程中的一个过渡阶段，但回归分析表明VM是一种部分自然模式，其变化大部分是由其内部演化贡献的。即使 NPO 阶段为负，CP 厄尔尼诺仍会在 VM 正的情况下发生。它们的关系在 CMIP5 RCP8.5 模拟中保持稳定，即全球变暖不会干扰正 VM 对 CP 厄尔尼诺现象的影响。综上所述，

更新日期：2021-06-15

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