In this study, the magnitude of an earthquake in the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) of Turkey are predicted based on previous earthquakes whose magnitudes are four or more by two-time series methods, namely autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and singular spectrum analysis (SSA). These methods are quite new in seismology despite being successful techniques in other branches of science. We use ARIMA and SSA models to train and predict the mean and maximum values of the earthquakes' magnitudes due to seismological events between years 1900 and 2019. 447 earthquake magnitudes between 1900 and 1995 are used for training models, and then 447 magnitudes between 1995 and 2019 are taken into account for testing. The root mean square error (RMSE) is calculated to evaluate the accuracy of each model. The results demonstrate that the SSA model is better than the ARIMA model to predict the earthquake magnitude. Hence, for the years 2020 to 2030 the magnitude of an earthquake is forecasted using the SSA model. The result shows that the highest magnitude of earthquake is forecasted for the year 2021 in magnitude level of 4.0–5.9.

在这项研究中，土耳其东安纳托利亚断层 (EAF) 的地震震级是基于先前震级为 4 级或以上的地震，通过二次时间序列方法，即自回归积分移动平均 (ARIMA) 和奇异谱分析来预测的。 (SSA)。尽管这些方法在其他科学分支中是成功的技术，但这些方法在地震学中还是相当新的。我们使用 ARIMA 和 SSA 模型来训练和预测 1900 年至 2019 年因地震事件引起的地震震级的平均值和最大值。训练模型使用 1900 年至 1995 年之间的 447 个地震震级，然后 1995 年至 447 个震级用于训练模型。 2019 年被考虑用于测试。计算均方根误差 (RMSE) 以评估每个模型的准确性。结果表明，SSA模型在预测地震震级方面优于ARIMA模型。因此，在 2020 年至 2030 年期间，使用 SSA 模型预测地震的震级。结果表明，预计2021年地震的最高震级为4.0-5.9级。