This paper investigates the shifts in climatic suitability for cultivating grapes (Vitis vinifera) in Hokkaido, Japan, throughout the 20th and 21st century. To assess area suitability over time, we used two climate model datasets and three climatic criteria (summer temperature, summer precipitation, and winter temperature). The optimum area for growth gradually enlarged from the 1990s to present (2010s), and this area will cover almost all of the Hokkaido region by the 2050s. Even when considering model uncertainties, almost all low elevation areas in Hokkaido are projected to be suitable for V. vinifera cultivation in the future.

中文翻译：

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北海道气候变化下酿酒葡萄生产的气候适宜性预测

本文调查了 20 世纪和 21 世纪日本北海道葡萄 (Vitis vinifera) 栽培气候适宜性的变化。为了随时间评估区域适宜性，我们使用了两个气候模型数据集和三个气候标准（夏季温度、夏季降水和冬季温度）。从1990年代到现在（2010年代），最适宜生长的区域逐渐扩大，到2050年代，该区域将几乎覆盖整个北海道地区。即使考虑到模型的不确定性，预计未来北海道几乎所有的低海拔地区都适合种植葡萄。