Since the early 1990s collapse of the groundfish fishery in Canada, crustaceans (particularly lobster) have developed into important fisheries. Prices play an important role in setting income and welfare levels of fishermen, creating policy interest in good forecasts of the ex-vessel price of lobster. In this article, Pesaran’s autoregressive distributed lag/error-correction Bounds model estimates a short-run inverse demand curve for Canadian lobster. The advantage of the Pesaran model is that it is valid regardless of the stationary/probability properties of the variables in question (i.e., ~I(1), ~I(0), or fractionally integrated) and allows the short-run model to encompass long-run equilibrium constraints. The data represents monthly observations for the period 1990(1)–2016(12). The estimated model is tested and validated, and dynamic forecasts capture well turning points in the data. Monthly price forecasts for the period 2017–18 are generated under a number of alternative price policy scenarios.

中文翻译：

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预测和模拟龙虾价格的短期ARDL-Bounds模型

自 1990 年代初加拿大底层鱼类渔业崩溃以来，甲壳类动物（尤其是龙虾）已发展成为重要的渔业。价格在确定渔民的收入和福利水平方面发挥着重要作用，从而对龙虾的出船价格的良好预测产生政策兴趣。在本文中，Pesaran 的自回归分布式滞后/误差校正边界模型估计了加拿大龙虾的短期逆需求曲线。Pesaran 模型的优点是无论所讨论的变量的平稳/概率属性如何（即，~I(1)、~I(0) 或分数积分）都是有效的，并且允许短期模型包括长期均衡约束。数据代表 1990(1)–2016(12) 期间的月度观测值。估计模型经过测试和验证，动态预测捕捉数据中的油井转折点。2017-18 年期间的月度价格预测是在多种替代价格政策情景下生成的。