Many scholars share the assumption that demographic patterns in the world are converging over time. The present study analyses the temporal trends of specific parameters of mortality and fertility—together with certain socio-economic indicators—in 95 less and least developed countries during the period 1990–2015 and discusses whether mortality and fertility trends are convergent or divergent. We apply dynamic factor analysis and cluster analysis of trajectories to macro-data from major international sources. The results show that a large number of countries have a convergent trend in mortality, but sub-Saharan African countries affected by the HIV–AIDS epidemic show non-monotonic temporal trends. Trends in fertility are delayed and unclear and depend on individual attitudes and levels of women’s empowerment. Fifty-two out of the 95 observed countries are collocated in similar mortality and fertility groups. Finally, countries at an advanced economic stage made the best improvements, while the least developed ones retained their deep pre-existing inequalities.

许多学者都认为世界上的人口模式正在随着时间的推移而趋同。本研究分析了 95 个欠发达国家和最不发达国家在 1990 年至 2015 年期间死亡率和生育率特定参数以及某些社会经济指标的时间趋势，并讨论了死亡率和生育率趋势是趋同还是不同。我们将动态因素分析和轨迹聚类分析应用于主要国际来源的宏观数据。结果表明，大量国家的死亡率呈现趋同趋势，但受 HIV-AIDS 流行影响的撒哈拉以南非洲国家则呈现出非单调的时间趋势。生育率趋势滞后且不明确，取决于个人态度和赋予妇女权力的程度。在观察到的 95 个国家中，有 52 个国家位于相似的死亡率和生育率组中。最后，处于先进经济阶段的国家取得了最好的进步，而最不发达国家则保留了它们先前存在的深刻不平等。