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Patterns of wildfire risk in the United States from systematic operational risk assessments: how risk is characterised by land managers
International Journal of Wildland Fire ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-10 , DOI: 10.1071/wf21020
Erin Noonan-Wright , Carl A. Seielstad

Risk management is a significant part of federal wildland fire management in the USA because policy encourages the use of fire to maintain and restore ecosystems while protecting life and property. In this study, patterns of wildfire risk were explored from operational relative risk assessments (RRA) completed by land managers on 5087 wildfires from 2010 to 2017 in every geographic area of the USA. The RRA is the formal risk assessment used by land managers to develop strategies on emerging wildfires when concerns and issues related to wildfire management are in real-time. Only 38% of these wildfires were rated as high risk and 28% had high ratings for values at risk. Large regional variations were evident, with the West Coast regions selecting high risk and the South-west and Eastern regions selecting low risk. There were finer-scale influences on perceived risk when summarised on a jurisdictional level. Finally, risk summarised by USA agencies showed that the National Park Service and USDA Forest Service selected high risk less frequently compared with other agencies. By illuminating patterns of risk, this research intends to stimulate examination of the social, cultural, and physiographic factors influencing conceptions of risk.

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中文翻译:

来自系统操作风险评估的美国野火风险模式:土地管理者如何描述风险

风险管理是美国联邦野地火灾管理的重要组成部分,因为政策鼓励使用火来维护和恢复生态系统,同时保护生命和财产。在这项研究中,从 2010 年至 2017 年美国每个地理区域的 5087 场野火的土地管理者完成的操作相对风险评估 (RRA) 中探索了野火风险模式。RRA 是正式的风险评估,当与野火管理相关的担忧和问题是实时的时,土地管理者使用它来制定针对新出现的野火的策略。这些野火中只有 38% 被评为高风险,28% 的风险值被评为高。区域差异明显,西海岸地区选择高风险,西南和东部地区选择低风险。在管辖范围内总结时,对感知风险有更精细的影响。最后,美国机构总结的风险表明,与其他机构相比,国家公园管理局和美国农业部林业局选择高风险的频率较低。通过阐明风险模式,本研究旨在激发对影响风险概念的社会、文化和自然因素的考察。

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更新日期:2021-06-13
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