Background

COVID-19 outbreak unfolds as the biggest challenge of this century by far. Virulence of the disease has compelled densely populated countries like India to impose severest measures, which include full or partial lockdown to contain the virus spread. The contagious virus has put the lives of many in urban cities on hold and forced them to abandon or restrict regular activities, which includes a basic human need to travel to satisfy one's daily needs. The eventual impact of the pandemic on individual mobility and the urban city's sustainability depends upon the resilience of medium and long-term policies during such disruptive events.

Objective

In order to gauge the impact of this unprecedented disease on travel behavior and mobility patterns of individuals, a web survey is conducted in urban agglomerations of India. The idea is to record travel mode choices before, during and after situations. The study also attempts to elicit responses towards a safer and disaster-resilient public transport, which can also cater to the needs of private vehicle-owning individuals. Further, the study presents and evaluates a set of medium to long-term policy prescriptions to negate the repercussions of this crisis and seize the opportunity it has created so that the long-held dream of sustainable and resilient cities in the context of urban mobility is realized in the best way possible.

Key findings

The study findings indicate an increase in the car-dependency pan-India level post the COVID-19 crisis. Strikingly the captive users of public transport and non-motorized transport mode (walk) are also willing to make a shift towards private motorized vehicles (car, motorized two-wheeler). The eventual mobility shift will depend upon- (a) the recovery period of mass transportation systems to normalcy (b) investments and promotion of active travel modes (non-motorized transport, i.e., walk, bicycle). The findings also reveal that demand and the willingness to pay extra for a safer, faster, cleaner, comfortable, and most importantly, resilient public transport exists. Further, policy evaluations for sustainable and resilient recovery reveal - (a) the provision of bicycle superhighway will push the bicycle share from 31% to approximately 44% (b) travel demand moderation efforts such as (i) staggering of working days demonstrates the reduction in the congestion externalities. (ii) Flexible arrangements for educational activities (two shifts in a day) facilitates overall gain in the system welfare, and (c) incentive such as reducing public transport fare has a positive impact on its share due to the mobility-shift from the private motorized vehicle.

Interpretation and implications of results

Investment and encouragement of active travel mode should be prioritized for personal well-being and disaster-resilient cities. Resilience planning should be an integral part of public transportation systems to handle the future shock of pandemics and other emergencies. Additionally, self-sustainable neighborhoods should be encouraged to reduce the trip lengths substantially or the need for private motorized transport for various secondary activities.

中文翻译：

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城市交通的范式转变：从 COVID-19 前后的出行政策洞察中把握机遇

 背景

COVID-19 的爆发是本世纪迄今为止最大的挑战。这种疾病的毒力迫使印度等人口稠密的国家采取最严厉的措施，其中包括全面或部分封锁以遏制病毒传播。这种传染性病毒使城市中许多人的生活陷入停滞，并迫使他们放弃或限制常规活动，其中包括人类通过旅行来满足日常需求的基本需求。疫情对个人流动和城市可持续发展的最终影响取决于中长期政策在此类破坏性事件中的恢复能力。

 客观的

为了评估这种前所未有的疾病对个人出行行为和流动模式的影响，在印度城市群进行了一项网络调查。这个想法是记录在情况发生之前、期间和之后的出行模式选择。该研究还试图引发人们对更安全、具有抗灾能力的公共交通的回应，这也可以满足私家车拥有者的需求。此外，该研究提出并评估了一套中长期政策方案，以消除这场危机的影响并抓住其创造的机遇，从而在城市流动性的背景下实现可持续和有弹性的城市的长期梦想以尽可能最好的方式实现。

 主要发现

研究结果表明，COVID-19 危机后，全印度的汽车依赖程度有所上升。引人注目的是，公共交通和非机动交通方式（步行）的固定用户也愿意转向私人机动车辆（汽车、机动两轮车）。最终的出行转变将取决于： (a) 公共交通系统恢复正常状态的恢复时间； (b) 投资和推广主动出行方式（非机动交通，即步行、自行车）。调查结果还表明，存在为更安全、更快捷、更清洁、舒适、最重要的是有弹性的公共交通支付额外费用的需求和意愿。此外，对可持续和有弹性复苏的政策评估显示：(a) 自行车高速公路的提供将把自行车的份额从 31% 推至约 44% (b) 出行需求节制措施，例如 (i) 错开工作日表明自行车份额减少在拥堵外部性中。 (ii) 教育活动的灵活安排（一天两班）有利于系统福利的整体收益，以及 (c) 由于流动性从私人转移，降低公共交通票价等激励措施对其份额产生积极影响机动车辆。

结果的解释和含义

应优先考虑对个人福祉和抗灾城市的积极出行方式的投资和鼓励。弹性规划应该成为公共交通系统不可或缺的一部分，以应对未来流行病和其他紧急情况的冲击。此外，应鼓励自给自足的社区大幅减少出行距离或减少各种次要活动对私人机动交通的需求。